Summer Fun

The Chicago Cubs are in the playoffs for the third consecutive year. This is the first time it has happened since those halcyon days of 1906-1908 back when, well, you know what, I am not up on my history from that time period. I'm sure something big was going on. 1908 was a presidential election year, so that was probably big. Apparently Hitler's mom died in 1907. Google tells me that Upton Sinclair's 'The Jungle' was published. (See, we're learning and it's fun.)

The odds are the Cubs aren't going to win the World Series again this year. This isn't a comment on the quality of the team, but just basic math. By the time the Cubs' playoffs, there will be 8 teams remaining. They'll have to win three multiple-game series to win back-to-back titles for the first time since 1907-1908.

Take a minute and flip a coin, calling it in the air. No, seriously, go ahead. I can wait. If you got it right, do it again. If you got it right a second time, do it one more time. If you got it right the third time, congratulations, you just won the World Series. While not exact, that's the basic math the Cubs would need to win again.

So the odds aren't great that it'll happen. And that's ok, because looking at World Series titles as the only measure of baseball success is a terrible way to enjoy the game and a great way to miss out on some truly amazing things.

In 2001, the Seattle Mariners won 116 games in the regular season. Only the 1906 Cubs won as many games in one season. It was a magical season (the Mariners, I don't remember that Cubs team). But Seattle lost in the playoffs. Calling that season a disappointment would take away the six months of amazing play the Mariners put together. Coincidentally, the Cubs didn't win the World Series in 1906 either. It's a small sample size, but I'm confident in saying winning 116 games in the regular season is not a good way to win the World Series.

From 1991 to 2005, the Atlanta Braves put together one of the most dominant stretches in sports, winning the division title 14 years in a row. But for all that success, the won the World Series only once. Measuring success only by championships means that both the Toronto Blue Jays and Florida Marlins were more successful during that time than the Braves despite the fact that both Toronto and Florida only made the playoffs twice during the Braves' run of dominance.

Because baseball plays 162 games over the course of six months, the best teams tend to rise to the top over the course of a season. There's enough time for the randomness of any individual game to become statistical noise. But when there's a best-of-five playoff series, suddenly that randomness of one game can have a huge impact on whether a team advances or not. The best teams don't always win. It may not be the fairest way to determine a champion, but it's the one we've got.

That's not to say I won't be incredibly disappointed if the Cubs lose in the playoffs. I will be. But I know the odds are long.

Having said that, this summer has been so much fun. I got to to a game at Wrigley Field in July and another Cubs game in Tampa earlier this month. (They went 1-1 when I attended if you're keeping track at home. Which, if you're keeping track at home, can we talk later? That is weird and you shouldn't be doing that.) I've spent countless hours watching games and highlights. For better or worse, the Cubs announcers are my summer soundtrack, filling the air with the sounds and sights of my baseball season.

And so a week from tomorrow the playoffs start. I'm nervous and anxious and excited all at once. There's a chance for all my time invested, the season could be over by the following Monday for the Cubs. That would be disappointing, but not enough to overwhelm the awesome summer I had.

Now is the time in the blog post where we dance.

via GIPHY

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